Contagion in the house of cards: How stable is the Euro – Sterling – Dollar?
Tuesday, 18 May, 2010 Leave a comment
OK so I have become somewhat “bogged down” in complexity within the financial markets and banking in recent times so for anyone who was hoping for a good laugh…you got the wrong space! The reason for this is simple. Because it is so COMPLEX, so precariously placed, the implications for each and every one of us are huge AND YOU SIMPLY DO NOT KNOW WHO YOU CAN TRUST TO TELL YOU THE TRUTH ABOUT IT.
That is precisely why I have immersed myself, in recent months, in understanding WHAT COMPLEXITY IS. In a recent blog I referred to complexity as a form of cancer and I am not about to apologise for that now.
Of course I want to get back on track with my plans in relation to: building the template for THE robust business “value network”; delivering complexity services & consulting for business; insurer/bank portfolio audit and analysis; risk prevention product & services development; integrating complexity management into insurance products – emphasis upon competitive advantage through transparency and sustainable stakeholder value; developing complexity solutions for IT/communication systems; developing complexity-based software and financial data solutions…
…and it may yet transpire that alerts such as this – that are unique as they are quantitative and model-free – reinforce the message that complexity analyses at financial and operational levels can deliver genuine and sustainable competitive advantage.
I firmly believe that mere survival in the, networked, new modernity already requires a new understanding and interpretation of the function of “risk management”.
Recent Ontonix analysis of the 27 EU economies reveals a low 2-star rating. The high density of the Complexity Map – represent the inter-connections within the financial data – points to a high risk of contagion.
The system is highly complex and difficult to manage and control. Exposure is high as well as inefficiency. The structure of the system is fragile, hence vulnerable. It is difficult to make forecasts.
Related articles by Zemanta
- Complexity Facts from Ontonix (davidgwilson.spaces.live.com)
- In Europe, Fears of a Deeper Crisis Are Intensifying (nytimes.com)
- Why manage complexity within financial services? (davidgwilson.spaces.live.com)
- Graphic illustration of "systemic risk" from complexity (davidgwilson.spaces.live.com)
- Complexity: Clay Shirky draws attention to this major threat… (davidgwilson.spaces.live.com)