Risks — the long term is more difficult to see

David Spiegelhalter playing with Arco Iris sam...

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Risks — the long term is more difficult to see

Great, short, podcast on risk: The public deals with risk using emotions more than mathematics. David Spiegelhalter argues there is good risk, and that we’re assessing and taking risks all the time in our daily lives. The bigger risks are often longer term risks and these are not as easy to see.

Obesity, lack of exercise, energy security and climate change are examples of future risk and the delayed affects of current activity. Making judgements of risk goes beyond statistical analysis. It also involves scientific judgement.

via Risks — the long term is more difficult to see – Farnam Street.

Prof. Spiegelhalter goes into much greater detail in this video (also in the “Fit for randomness collection” – see link in Headings) that gets particularly interesting after about 35 – 40 mins. when dealing with “uncertainty”.

He has a very easy, yet engaging, style. Which helps when dealing with, what, to many, is a pretty dry subject.