The Fragility of the EU Economy Rated VERY HIGH



From this infographic the embedded links you will be able to gain an insight into the unique capabilities that Ontonix bring to data analysis. Note the steady increase in complexity prior to the “global economic trauma” of late 2007 and the, even sharper, decline through 2009/10.

This illustrates why understanding, measuring and monitoring the “structural robustness” of an organisation – ecosystem – network, in such an inter-connected and turbulent climate should be a a C-Level priority. Quantitative Complexity Management can serve as an early warning system – crisis anticipation.

Alternatively you could rely upon economic forecasts or conventional analyses and wait to see how events, that are apparently unrelated to “you and yours”, impact you and your stakeholders!

Q4 2009 EU Structural Fragility Report. Download FREE sample copy here.

Q1 2010 EU Structural Fragility Report. NOW AVAILABLE for €199. Contact us to obtain a copy.

Recent news on an imminent bailout of the troubled Irish economy and emergency meetings of the EU finance ministers in Brussels (17 November 2010) point to a highly fragile situation of the eurozone economy.

According to the EU Structural Fragility analysis (based on Eurostat data) performed by Ontonix on a quarterly basis, the fragility changed from HIGH in Q4 2009 to VERY HIGH in Q1 2010. A constant plunge of complexity, as indicated in the figure above, points to a shrinking economy of the system of 27 EU member states. This points to very high risk of contagion.

The Q2 2010 EU Structural Fragility Report shall be published as soon as Eurostat releases the Q2 data.

The tracking of the evolution of the combined complexity of the eurozone countries shows clearly how it is possible, using this technique, to not only anticipate but to actually measure the fragility of the economy seen as a system of interacting entities (countries).

More soon.

2 Responses to The Fragility of the EU Economy Rated VERY HIGH

  1. nick gogerty says:

    David,

    just curious, you mentioned that declining complexity is related to shrinking GDP. Do you have any charts or data you can show related to that. It is an interesting thesis. Is it different for natural resource dependant countries, export led etc?

    • Hi Nick,
      The data analysed is detailed in this previous blog: Eurozone in crisis: Debt, deficits & structural analyses.

      Here is the link to Q4 2009 for your perusal and analysis. As you will note from the individual country analyses the impact upon overall complexity of GDP and exports varies. I would certainly be interested if you had any specific observations in this connection.

      We did an analysis of Q1 2010 but Eurostat haven’t yet produced the data for Q2.

      I hope this is useful.
      Cheers

      David

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