Mobius Says Fresh Financial Crisis Around Corner…


Tree caricature from South Sea Bubble cards

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In case anyone was in any doubt about where we are headed…”GET REAL!”. It was never a question of “if”, merely “when”.

   Mark Mobius, executive chairman of Templeton Asset Management’s emerging markets group, said another financial crisis is inevitable because the causes of the previous one haven’t been resolved.

“There is definitely going to be another financial crisis around the corner because we haven’t solved any of the things that caused the previous crisis”

via Mobius Says Fresh Financial Crisis Around Corner Amid Volatile Derivatives – Bloomberg.

The sheer scale of the gamble of pumping so much new money directly into markets that were shown to be (at very least) morally corrupt, had failed so spectacularly yet STILL remain little changed, unpunished and unbowed, will only be apparent when it explodes in the face of the Political and Financial elites.

They will be held accountable for their actions by the rest of society upon who the economic and social burden of TBTF has, well and truly, fallen.

It is not only the financial bubble that will burst

Presentation: what stage in the cycle do YOU think we are at?


I know what I think and I reckon and, had it not been for the unimaginable amounts of money created out of thin air by Governments, we would already be travelling the road to recovery in the new landscape!

I am no financial or banking expert but I really don’t believe one need be if embracing some ‘Systems Thinking‘. Of course, I would love to hear some reasoned arguments for and against my viewpoint. I hope you enjoy the presentation.

Here is some further “food for thought”

“In finance it’s often been survival of the fattest rather than the fittest”

Andy Haldane, Bank of England

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Business Models: High Performance in Insurance (Accenture)


BusinessModel

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I care about the insurance industry…sad but true!

Banks need to waken up to the potential of social media

But, as an industry, it is its own worst enemy. Simultaneously too stupid and too smart for its own good; great at dishing-out advice but not at taking it; far better at talking than at listening. Problem is that the time to listen to customers, commentators and consultants is passing much more quickly than any elements of their “demands” are being applied and meaningful change initiated. So what’s the problem?

It isn’t a lack of financial or human resources and, let’s face it, creating and deploying a credible strategy to rebuild trust has got W-I-N-N-E-R written all over it. Trouble is that, despite the potential rewards, CULTURE REMAINS A MAJOR OBSTACLE TO INNOVATION & MAXIMISING “SOCIAL BUSINESS” OPPORTUNITIES.

...insurers now must blend mature and emerging markets in ways that can optimize their growth and overall performance, and they must incorporate mobile communications and social media into their operations to stay close to customers and protect their brands. Social media, in particular, poses risks, as does entry into emerging markets, aging workforces and increasing volumes of business conducted online. Yet consumers increasingly are demanding online services, as they become more complex and diverse, forcing insurers to develop more actionable segmentation strategies. Intensifying all of this is a competitive landscape in flux, from the return of brokers to the rise of aggregators to more joint ventures and service-based differentiation.

via Business Models – High Performance in Insurance – Accenture.

More Trouble for Greece?


For a more dynamic view of such analyses you may wish to explore our, recently developed, tool MapView. It is free to download as is the operating Manual (but it isn’t really so complicated as that may suggest).

If you decide to do this please drop me an email and I shall forward a zip file containing reports for US and European countries: david@ontonix.com

Here are some Complexity Facts based upon our work.

The complexity of the Greece’s economic system is in free fall. In the previous Ontonix blog on the evolution of the complexity of the structure of European Union’s economy we have seen that it was possible to predict, in advance, the effects of the sub-prime crisis and that the economic recovery is much stronger for the founding member countries (EU 15) than that of the countries that have joined after May 1, 2004 (EU12).

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Scientists Seek Warning Signs for Catastrophic Tipping Points


In case anyone is reading my blog for the first time – shame on you – or you have read bits and pieces without ever really thinking too much about complexity or systems, THIS may be the article that changes all that! Because, what the scientists have been trying to figure out, is what Ontonix are able to achieve by measuring system complexity:

Tipping points are found in ecosystems, economies and even bodies. But they’re usually recognized in retrospect, when it’s too late for anything but regret.

Now a growing body of research suggests there are telltale mathematical signals. If scientists can figure out how to detect them, they may be able to forecast tipping points ahead of time.

“We are repeatedly blindsided by disasters that come out of the blue. If we had better tools for anticipating those events, we could avoid some of them,” said Steve Carpenter, a University of Washington ecologist and co-author of a review Wednesday in Nature.

In 1982, physicist Kenneth Wilson won a Nobel Prize for developing equations to describe transitions that don’t happen in a linear, easily predictable way, but are sudden and massive, such as fluids becoming turbulent and metals becoming magnetized.

Since then, scientists have noticed similar shifts elsewhere. The theory provides the only models that make sense of the Sahara’s sudden flip from fertile grassland to sandy wastes some 5,500 years ago. Exploited fish populations fluctuate wildly. Futures prices on the S&P 500 displayed telltale skewing in the year preceding the 1987 stock market crash.

The proposition is by no means certain, but the possibility of being able to predict these sorts of events is tantalizing.

via Scientists Seek Warning Signs for Catastrophic Tipping Points | Wired Science | Wired.com.