Seth Godin covers “known knowns thru unkown unknowns”


Risk management isn’t just something for businesses to deal with. Here is some, typically pragmatic, advice from a man for whom I have previously declared my (purely platonic) “love”:

Disaster tolerance

Not all disasters can be avoided.

Not all disasters are fatal.

If you accept these two truths, your approach to risk will change. If you build a disaster-tolerant nation or project or lifestyle, you will be more willing to challenge the fates and won’t hide out.

The disaster-tolerant approach means that you can focus on the upside of risk instead of obsessing about the worst possible outcome. And once you do that, the upside is more likely to occur.

If your hard drive has backups, you don’t have to be as careful in buying hard drives. It’s okay if a cheap one breaks. If your portfolio of artistic or financial endeavours isn’t wrapped up in one project or one gallery, it’s okay to do something a bit more daring, because one critic can’t cripple you.

That outcome you were so afraid of isn’t so bad, and once you realize you can tolerate it, it’s (amazingly, perversely and ironically) less likely to happen.

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