Data Mining: Detecting patterns isn’t the same as looking for them


LOS ANGELES, CA - AUGUST 30:  Big Bird arrives...

Image by Getty Images via @daylife

In the fine tradition of Sesame Street this blog is brought to you by the word APOPHENIA and the number 2 [two being the number of members from the Linkedin “Risk, Regulation & Reporting” Forum (on Linkedin) – Vladimir Seroff and Joe Erl – to whom I owe a debt of thanks, for inspiring this blog].

This Ontonix presentation illustrates, the limitations of conventional statistical analysis, when data does not conform to a linear fit…how inconvenient, misleading and downright dangerous! Read more of this post

Innovation: the difference between organisational agility or fragility


Seth Godin is “on the money” yet again but I would contend that, if it is the most adaptable that survive and thrive, then each are key elements (or “phases”) that, harnessed and applied, drive innovation in an agile, dynamic, system…

Organization vs. movement vs. philosophy

An organisation uses structure and resources and power to make things happen. Organisations hire people, issue policies, buy things, erect buildings, earn market share and get things done.

Your company is probably an organisation.

A movement has an emotional heart. A movement might use an organisation, but it can replace systems and people if they disappear. Movements are more likely to cause widespread change, and they require leaders, not managers.

The internet, it turns out, is a movement, and every time someone tries to own it, they fail.

A philosophy can survive things that might wipe out a movement and that would decimate an organisation. A philosophy can skip a generation or two. It is often interpreted, and is more likely to break into autonomous groups, to morph and split and then reunite.

Industrialism was a philosophy.

The trouble kicks in when you think you have one and you actually have the other.

Panarchic cycle (large)Feel free to fit: philosophy; movement; organisation, as you see fit, to this infographic of the “Panarchic Cycle”

The bewildering, entrancing, unpredictable nature of Nature and people, the richness, diversity and changeability of life come from that evolutionary dance generated by cycles of growth, collapse, reorganization, renewal and re-establishment. We call that the adaptive cycle. 

Holling, 2009

Welcome to Art class: The “art” may be survival

Connecting the dissident dots…”Tipping Points”


Mark Mobius is one of the most influential voices in Global investments and he is talking about when and what, NOT “if”, in terms of “tipping point” for the next global financial crisis. He’s right..

The foundations of the world economic system are so decayed and so corrupted that even a stiff breeze could potentially topple the entire structure over. Over the past couple of months a constant parade of bad economic news has come streaming in from Europe, Asia and the United States. Signs of an impending economic slowdown are everywhere. So what “tipping point” will trigger the next global economic downturn? Nobody knows for sure, but potential tipping points are all around us. Read more of this post