Euro 2011: the “tipping point”
Friday, 18 November, 2011 Leave a comment
Time is NOT on our side!
Despite the urgency, Europe’s leaders still cannot decide upon the best course of action since all of the available options have potentially serious side effects on the economy and financial system at a time when Europe is already headed for a recession, if it is not already in one. EU industrial production for October was down 2% while Germany’s ZEW (confidence index) has entered deep recessionary territory. The leading indicators for Italy and France have also dropped to levels indicating recessions in the past. Austerity unaccompanied by national monetary policy and the ability to devalue can only exacerbate this negative trend.
The problems appear to be spreading to the rest of the globe as well. Both Indian and Brazilian industrial production is weakening while their leading indexes are pointing down. Korean industrial production has been flat all year. Notably, the developing nations’ economies are heavily export-driven, and Europe is an important customer for their goods, although there are undoubtedly country-specific factors at work as well.
The following graphic represents our [Ontonix] rating of the entire European Union (comprising 27 countries, each described via 24 macro-economic parameters) and which we analyse every quarter (results from Q1 2011 analysis). For a more in depth analysis of feedback loops within networks the full article can be found here:
A 1 star rating, in a 5 star stratification, tells anyone, pretty well, all they would need to know about the subject being rated!
Unlike the Rating Agencies our rating does not come in the form of an, over-priced, “opinion” that, on the bases of numerous failures in the recent past, are worth very little: if you received such inaccurate opinions from a Doctor or Surgeon they would have been the subject of numerous Medical Malpractice lawsuits and be struck off long before now. Their incompetence would tend to affect only one person at a time NOT tens of millions over generations!!!
Ontonix rating is 100% objective and quantitative, based upon data relating to the “system” being observed. It is a World first and rigorously tested to be applied in a wide range of “high risk” environments including Healthcare, Aerospace, Automotive safety, Air Traffic control, Computer Aided Design & Engineering.
However, what I really wanted to illustrate with this first graphic, are the “predictive” capabilities of our technology. In recent weeks Italy have followed Portugal, Greece and Ireland into the, unwanted market spotlight but, IF we (they)knew then what we know now, how much misery could have been saved?
If you are a “doubter” you may think that, in the current, turbulent, economic climate, we may have just “got lucky”. You are entitled to your opinion…so long as you don’t want to charge me $100K for the privilege! SO if you follow this link you can see how we got on with our analysis of the US Housing market pre-crash: Crisis Anticipation
- Ontonix: Ratings – From an Opinion to Science (fitforrandomness.wordpress.com)