Differentiating risk and uncertainty [infographic]: : YOUR feedback required


risk horizonI have sat on this for…months because I:

  • cannot make my mind up how happy I am with it,so
  • I have accepted it is best to view it as a collaborative work in progress
  • wasn’t entirely sure what I was going to do with it or how best to share it
  • am frustrated that people in the “risk business” are unwilling to engage in informed discussion about:
    • business – networks – markets as Complex Systems
    • identified RM failings in
      • conventional Risk/Project Management – Corporate/banking/insurance
      • subjective Risk assessment
      • Risk rating
  • am fed up with people, who should know better:
    • being unable to differentiate between risk and uncertainty, or
    • confusing the two
    • failing to recognise the serious implications of treating uncertainty with risk management tools/techniques and
    • making, dangerously naive, assumptions e.g. Read more of this post

Financial meltdown:: Monopoly for 1%…Russian roulette for 99%


I am fed up watching whilst politicians, bankers, rating agencies and “the markets” play monopoly! This article (link below) refers to the UK and dates back to 17th January 2011 with links to even older items.

UK Economy: A cynic’s summary

People are realising that we are not in fact all in it together but have, instead, a kleptocracy

What has happened since then is that the stakes are higher, based upon gradual exposure of the sheer scale of bank and sovereign debt – to the purists there is a world of difference to the rest of us any distinction between banker and politician merely reflects what stage they are at in their career – as a result of, at best, mismanagement and, at worst, unadulterated systemic greed.

I was really drawn to revisit this topic because of these pithy comments from TIm Hoad taken from a long-running discussion on Linkedin: “How realistic is the prospect of any country either being pushed out of, or leaving, the Eurozone?” Read more of this post

Risk Management :: Global ORM Software and Services Market to Reach US$2.28 Billion by 2015


Alternatively, “Advanced Risk Management” from Ontonix – that recognises organisations as complex systems – may just save a substantial amount of that money, contributing to the re-engineering of Corporate structure and culture to (re)build resilience (around effective information flow) for the “Digital Age”

With over 65% of companies’ worldwide attributing poor and inefficient risk management as the leading cause for the meltdown of the international financial structure, organizational perception of risk is changing rapidly. For instance, the concept is no longer deemed limited to just insurance, loss avoidance and compliance, but has expanded to include all facets of risks that have an impact on the future performance of the organization. This shift in perception has also led a number of companies, especially investment banks and financial institutions, to adopt risk management as a tool for sustainable, long-term growth and to sharpen competitive advantages.

The importance of risk management has been rather lucidly demonstrated by the economic crisis. As a result of the fiasco of efficient risk management, regional and multinational banks and financial institutions have come under greater scrutiny by regulatory bodies and central banks.

via Global Operational Risk Management ORM Software and Services Market to Reach US$2.28 Billion by 2015, According to New Report by Global Industry Analysts, Inc..

The world HAS already changed: sink or survive?


Sometimes, despite my best efforts, I cannot resist sharing Seth Godin’s wisdom! This is particularly difficult when he hits on a point that I have been making time and again as I try to communicate the URGENT need for change, specifically within in Financial Services and Risk management.

Risk Leaders (Godin’s artists) and early adopters will be the “winners”…other will just have to trust to luck!

When the world changes…

It’s painful, expensive, time-consuming, stressful and ultimately pointless to work overtime to preserve your dying business model.

All the lobbying, the lawsuits, the ad campaigns and most of all, the hand-wringing, aren’t going to change anything at all. In fact, instead of postponing the outcome you fear, they probably accelerate it.

The history of media and technology is an endless series of failed rearguard actions as industry leaders attempt to solidify their positions on a bed of quicksand.

Again and again the winners are individuals and organizations that spot opportunities in the next thing, as opposed to those that would demonize, marginalize or illegalize (is that a word?) it. Breaking systems that benefit your customers is dumb. Taking money from lobbyists to break those systems is dumber still.

Let Seth inform and inspire you..

Seth Godin interview on Canadian tv