Differentiating risk and uncertainty [infographic]: : YOUR feedback required


risk horizonI have sat on this for…months because I:

  • cannot make my mind up how happy I am with it,so
  • I have accepted it is best to view it as a collaborative work in progress
  • wasn’t entirely sure what I was going to do with it or how best to share it
  • am frustrated that people in the “risk business” are unwilling to engage in informed discussion about:
    • business – networks – markets as Complex Systems
    • identified RM failings in
      • conventional Risk/Project Management – Corporate/banking/insurance
      • subjective Risk assessment
      • Risk rating
  • am fed up with people, who should know better:
    • being unable to differentiate between risk and uncertainty, or
    • confusing the two
    • failing to recognise the serious implications of treating uncertainty with risk management tools/techniques and
    • making, dangerously naive, assumptions e.g.
      • equilibrium
      • linearity (deterministic) in a non-linear (dynamic) world
      • it is easier to predict (model) the future than it is to examine the unseen (unknown)
      • the probability distribution is the same for independent (Gaussian) risks as it is for interdependent (Power Law)
    • ignoring/overlooking
      • the importance of embedding effective tools in both structure and culture
      • the impact (of “bad” structure & culture) upon operational effectiveness and complexity
      • the importance of (re)building, measuring and managing RESILENCE
      • or talking about unforeseen as if it meant unforeseeable
      • am genuinely concerned that, until such time as the issues are scrutinised and discussed in an open manner the organisations engaged in risk management and transfer are adding to the uncertainty affecting themselves, their customers, connected systems and networks across domains and at every level…creating turbulence and volatility across borders and domains

I HOPE THESE ARE GOOD ENOUGH REASONS TO INVITE CONSTRUTIVE INPUT FROM PEOPLE WHO CARE ABOUT DOING THE JOB RIGHT…BECAUSE WE ARE ALL IN THIS TOGETHER.

GLOBAL RESILIENCE COMMUNITY:

WE need a new Business Model for the “Digital Age”.

A scalable, virtual, Community of inter-connected “value networks” of

Multi-disciplinary interdependent, local, communities.

Like-minded “Risk Leaders” committed to (re)building trust through transparency

Accepting responsibility: sharing risk and reward

A foundation for “Responsible Capitalism” for modernity

A means to transform or replace the fragile, hierarchical, Institutional structures of the Industrial era.

      • is “hub & spoke” Communities structured for interdependent operation and
        • effective information-flow
        • agile service delivery
        • customer service (client-centric)
        • instils RESPONSIBILITY as a keystone
        • is adaptable
        • shares the rewards of
          • resilience
          • loyalty
          • stability
          • contribution
      • facilitates innovation, through
        • research & development
        • learning
        • exaptation and adoption
        • collaboration
        • investment
      • is measured
      • managed
      • monitored
      • maintained
    • by the unique tools provided by Ontonix.

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