John Kay:: don’t blame luck when your models misfire


There are still legions of smart people recruited into FS to be put to work on building models that attempt to predict the future…WHY???

We will succeed in managing financial risk better only when we come to recognise the limitations of formal modelling. Control of risk is almost entirely a matter of management competence, well-crafted incentives, robust structures and systems, and simplicity and transparency of design

Basically, according to this quote, what we need to do is, almost exactly the opposite to what we have done for so many years!

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