Is it Possible to Make Predictions?: don’t ask an Actuary or statistician

Probability and Measure
Probability and Measure (Photo credit: John-Morgan)

I don’t consider myself particularly clever but I understand that, when it comes to matters of finance and insurance, we CANNOT predict the future. So, why is it that extremely clever, highly educated, people don’t appear to understand OR are prepared to feign ignorance?

“…contemporary “predictive machinery” is based on statistics – looking back in time, building some model of what has actually happened, extrapolating into the future. The concept of probability plays a central role here. Bertrand Russell is known to have said, back in 1929, that “probability is the most important concept in modern science, especially as nobody has the slightest notion what it means”. In fact, probability is not a physical entity and it is not subjected to any laws in the strict scientific meaning. As a matter of fact, there are no laws of probability. If a future event will take place, it will do so irrespective of the probability that we may have attached to it. If an extremely  unlikely event will happen, it’s probability of occurrence is already 100%”

via Ontonix S.r.l.: Is it Possible to Make Predictions?.

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What is Resilience? Why is it Important in a Turbulent Economy

See on Scoop.itComplexity & Resilience

The concept of resilience of a corporation – which today may be measured based on the technology developed by Ontonix – is crucial because our economy is unstable, turbulent, and most importantly, punctuated by shocks. It is difficult to imagine, in the face of galloping globalization, that these fluctuations and shocks would become progressively less intense and severe… 

business resilience is a new and fundamental KPI

David G Wilson‘s insight:

The age of overpaying to Financial Institutions for inferior products and services – particularly those firms whose raison detre is to strip customers of promised value in order to fund excessively complex, over-remunerated and inflexible infrastructures – MUST BE NEARING AN END!


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What to do if Collaborative Economy Marketplaces Are Disrupting Your Business

Where, oh where are the would-be future leaders in Financial Services? That isn’t those that are ‘struggling’ with decisions surrounding options 1 – 4, rather it is those who are looking at 5 & (particularly) 6 as a means of building sustainable resilience into their own model and sharing these properties with stakeholders, i.e. recognising the interconnected nature of business ecosystems. Read more of this post

Light The Way | Robin Adams

If this was Mumford & Son or even The Eagles it would be massive by now!

Robin is a super talented young man who deserves a break. He has written and recorded some stunning music. Check him out.

Some music lovers may even remember ‘String Driven Thing‘. They supported Genesis on their 1974 US Tour. The band were formed by Robin’s folks, Chris & Pauline. Chris still leads the band and they have a great back catalogue. Their live performances prove that, if you have the passion, it doesn’t matter how old or young you are. Oh! and they are lovely people too.

via Light The Way | Robin Adams.

The Last ‘Mystery’ of the Financial Crisis

“As you know, I had difficulties explaining ‘HOW’ we got to those numbers since there is no science behind it,” confesses a high-ranking S&P analyst. “If we are just going to make it up in order to rate deals, then quants [quantitative analysts] are of precious little value,” complains another senior S&P man. “Let’s hope we are all wealthy and retired by the time this house of card[s] falters,” ruminates one more.

Rolling Stone Mobile – Politics – Politics: The Last Mystery of the Financial Crisis.