Ontonix S.r.l.: Complexity Profiling and Causality


See on Scoop.itComplexity & Resilience

Complexity is a measure of how much information a system “contains” and how much this information is structured. One could simply sum up the Shannon entropies of each variable and conclude that this is the total amount of information in a system. However, because variables can be correlated, they give rise to structure. Structure means the system can “do more” and, potentially, perform new functions. Structure is present everywhere in Nature.

David G Wilson‘s insight:

The potential to track causality through identification of ‘Causal Relationships’ offers insight where an early warning can serve as a means to prevent a potentially major loss.

Invaluable insight for carriers of financial and insurance risks where the causal relationship between its own profitability and risk profile is apparent…so, WHY, if loss prevention is achievable, are those charged with the responsibility to underwrite such risks, ‘content’ with conventional wisdom and a limited ‘risk horizon’ when:

AN INFORMATIONAL ADVANTAGE CAN CREATE A SIGNIFICANT COMPETITIVE ADVANTAGE!?

See on ontonix.blogspot.it

Ontonix S.r.l.: The 787 Dreamliner, Complexity, Systemantics And Linear Thinking


“In the past few decades we have conceived, designed and constructed extremely complex systems and infrastructures on which our lives depend to a very large degree. The list is endless but it all comes down to huge networks, systems of systems, computers, software, information and communication, the internet, etc. Such systems are indeed very complex and yet they have been designed without taking complexity into account…”

Ontonix S.r.l.: The 787 Dreamliner, Complexity, Systemantics And Linear Thinking.

Business Insurance:: ISO 31000 should we believe the hype?


image

Apparently,

“…risk managers should use standards such as ISO 31000, “because standards, no matter what kind or which ones, support key tools and processes.”“Standards allow you to proactively address risks with some discipline,” he said. “Standards also relate well to the whole idea of focusing on outcomes.”

http://www.businessinsurance.com/article/20130602/NEWS06/306029979?template=smartphoneart

Surely the focus should be upon being proactive and ‘managing’ emergent risks, NOT outcomes!?

Where, I suspect, NASA have a distinct (informational) advantage is that the multi-scalar interactions among components, processes, networks of sub-systems and systems are each rigorously tested at every point in assembly and operation…

Read more of this post

Competitive advantage from new insights on customers, risks and business cycles – Bain & Co.


It isn’t rocket science to figure that, if we keep asking the same questions, using the same metrics and look for familiar patterns in data we won’t get new, better answers or identify new patterns!

Identifying, mapping, monitoring and managing causal relationships is a means by which carriers of financial/insurance risk can seize a considerable competitive advantage…from an informational advantage.

Ontonix enables organisations [insurers] to do just that…in real-time, if required!

So, instead of relying upon attempts to predict the unpredictable and reflexive, post-loss, analysis the opportunity exists for ‘crisis anticipation’. Our experience of working across a wide range of sectors – from healthcare to aviation, automotive and engineering design to banking – is that, our unique analysis can enable effective loss prevention. A, potentially, transformational development for firms involved in insurance risk transfer, investing for future returns or protecting against unknown (or unknowable) future events…so where are the ‘Risk Leaders’? Read more of this post

Ontonix:: The 787 Dreamliner, Complexity, Systemantics And Linear Thinking


High complexity regimes is uncharted territory. While most people struggle with definitions of complexity (many still think it has to do with ants or storms of starlings) it is hitting us hard on many fronts. In the past few decades we have conceived, designed and constructed extremely complex systems and infrastructures on which our lives depend to a very large degree. The list is endless but it all comes down to huge networks, systems of systems, computers, software, information and communication, the internet, etc. Such systems are indeed very complex and yet they have been designed without taking complexity into account. This is paradoxical to say the least. Complexity is the hallmark of our times and yet complexity is not a design-attribute when it comes to putting in place sophisticated products, systems or infrastructures. Engineers should be the first to be concerned with measuring complexity and keeping it under control in any manufacturing projects, just like it happens for costs and schedules. What happens if you throw complexity under the carpet is that it will strike back in the form of guaranteed cost overruns and late delivery. The A380 and the 787 Dreamliner immediately come to mind. And then, once the product is on the market, high complexity will strike again in the form of fragility. Just think of how sophisticated financial products have run out of control and what they have done to our global economy.

Designing highly complex and sophisticated products while taking complexity into account has been described in our old blog. Today, there is a cloud-based tool for doing precisely that. Visit the Design4Resilience website.

However, it is even more shocking to discover how linear thinking still dominates our thinking and philosophy. Unfortunately this applies to many engineers too. In a recent article on the 787 battery problem we read: “…. One key question for safety investigators is how the battery’s eight individual cells became volatile even though the overall voltage to the battery was steady and didn’t exceed the 32-volt capacity, officials have said.”

The logic is the following:

  • A system is monitored by checking a certain number of parameters (hundreds, thousands).
  • If each parameter is within bounds then all is OK.
  • The worst case is when all (or many) parameters reach the end of the scale.

Ontonix – Complex Systems Management, Business Risk Management.