Nassim Taleb on “antifragility”:: non-sissy uncertainty


English: Escultura dedicada a la Entropía en l...

Taleb rarely disappoints. And here is a “new” word that most of us may understand better as resilience(ish)! For more reading on the subject I would recommend this piece: Antifragility — or— The Property Of Disorder-Loving Systems but I’m sure you will find the following of interest too.

Here’s a quote from the prologue of Antifragility, which should give you a sense of Taleb’s substance and style: “This book is about how to domesticate, even dominate, even conquer, the impenetrable, the unseen, the non-understood, the opaque, the perplexing, and the inexplicable. Wind extinguishes a candle and energizes fire. Likewise with randomness: you want to use it, not hide from it. You want to be the fire and wish for the wind. This summarizes my non-sissy attitude toward randomness and uncertainty.”

via Non-Sissy Uncertainty: Why I Inflict Nassim “Black Swan” Taleb on My Students | Cross-Check, Scientific American Blog Network.

Risk Management:: we have one history but multiple futures – can we “fix” it?


OK, so, in Economics and Finance we hear a great deal about “models”. Despite the obvious and much written about, failings, great store is put in their accuracy and ability to predict…even though, we already KNOW that, meaningful prediction about future events, based upon past events and outcomes, IS NOT POSSIBLE! 

We are [still] in crisis and surrounded by increased volatility, uncertainty, complexity and ambiguity: most of it of our own making.  The need for CHANGE, to give us hope worth clinging to, is even more pressing. But…

…we can’t begin to rebuild trust, an industry or economies without reliable tools:

Financial and Political mismanagement, misinformation, manipulation and mis-selling brought us to this point and mere rhetoric about “change” cannot mask these facts!

TRUST needs a foundation: the failure of past models, techniques and tools tell us that, without TRANSPARENCY, we need evidence from those that claim the ability and desire to (re)build a RESILIENT and SUSTAINABLE future.

One in which the integrity of the entire “structure” is ROBUST from the bottom up, or inside out [i2o].