Living with Black Swans: balancing the books in uncertainty


OK I’m a self-confessed fan of NNT but early on in this interview with his former Professor he again hits the nail on the head. He reminds us of the lessons that every business (and political!) leader needs to learn..

“…You have to avoid debt because debt makes the system more fragile. You have to increase redundancies in some spaces. You have to avoid optimization. That is quite critical for someone who is doing finance to understand because it goes counter to everything you learn in portfolio theory…. I have always been very sceptical of any form of optimization. In the black swan world, optimization isn’t possible. The best you can achieve is a reduction in fragility and greater robustness. You may have heuristics, but not an optimization rule. I hope the message will finally get across because I haven’t succeeded yet.

People talk about black swans but they don’t talk about robustness, which is the real lesson of the black swans.”

Business Leaders of the current culture are not, generally, “agents of change”. As I have said before we need to cultivate Risk Leaders. Those who, not only,  recognise the flaws of the current culture but are motivated to create, champion, execute and capitalise upon new models and strategies.

Apart from the clamour, from better informed and more demanding consumers, for greater transparency, accessibility and demonstrable sustainability, the pressing NEED is for this new breed to embrace the concept that robustness (or NNT’s anti-fragility) can ONLY come from by creating (and maintaining) a sound business infrastructure…from the bottom up or, as I feel is even more appropriate, from the “inside out”: i2o”.

The relevance of scaling and causality

Such problems as Taleb highlights can only be addressed if the owner can view the business (or system) at the appropriate “scale”. Otherwise how would one know where and by how much to “increase redundancy” to build RESILIENCE in order to survive unforeseen and unforeseeable future events?

After all redundancy and robustness cost NOW and need to be maintained, so, have an ongoing impact upon profitability.

Harvard Business Review: Complex Risk Management


I wouldn’t want anyone to get too excited and think that I have added Italian to my extensive repertoire of (one) language! I have to thank one of my colleagues at Ontonix for the translation of this article from Harvard Business Review, Italy. The author – whose Linkedin profile can be accessed from the link in his name (below) – is not a member of the Ontonix team but is extremely well qualified to put forward an informed opinion.

Supply Chain and Systemic risk

The article is not, exclusively, about Japan or Supply Chains. Nor is it about just about Ontonix but it IS about gaining some understanding of complexity: what it is; why it cannot be detected by conventional risk management; how it can impact and why ignorance can’t really be an excuse.

Supply chain complexityI have written numerous blogs and several articles on the frailty of, in particular, Global Supply Chains. With very good reason. Thankfully, not every event, like that which struck Japan last month, causes such vast devastation and loss of life. But many natural disasters and, increasingly, the man-made variety pose a huge threat to businesses that are already struggling to deal with a turbulent global economy and have “lean” business models that assume the greatest threat(s) to their success come from risks that they have encountered before so can (in theory) prepare for…

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