Can Complexity Thinking Fix Capitalism?


See on Scoop.itComplexity & Resilience

Can Complexity Thinking Advance Management and Fix Capitalism?

David G Wilson‘s insight:

“An intense effort at regulating the banks has side-stepped the root cause—a lack of transparency—and instead has tried to build fences around the problem. But fences won’t help in the case of a global financial meltdown: the amounts of money involved are just too large. If we want to avoid an even larger meltdown in future, the only solution is to have transparency on what the banks are up to. It’s possible that complexity thinkers like Mark Buchanan may be able to help devise mechanisms that constitute a step towards the needed transparency. But the key requirement here is political will to insist on transparency, not the modelling of complexity science”

http://wp.me/p16h8c-1tK

See on www.forbes.com

Knowledge Management:: Why Management Consulting Will Be Disrupted: Part 1


A lot more than Management Consultants NEED to learn from “interactions” and interdependencies IF their particular skill-set is to remain relevant. The world is better understood when viewed, as it can be in the Digital Age, as an infinite series of inter-connected systems.

Complexity (of the 'system' - business model, or corporation, etc.) x Uncertainty (of the environment, market, economy) = Fragility (of the situation) Evidently, U cannot be managed but C can. Measuring, monitoring and managing 'current complexity' is more effective than conventional means of assessing, rating, managing and modelling risk. And why it is better that a system be less complex [Occam's Razor].  The best way to impact C is by starting from the top of the Complexity profile. Because the profile is computed based on a model-free method, there are no subjective 'weights' to adjust. Basically, this guarantees that you hit the most important parameters first, i.e the hubs. A system CANNOT perform functions for which it was intended without, first, possessing and maintaining the minimum amount of complexity to do so. Therefore, by monitoring current complexity, the potential risks associated with loss of function(s) due to endogenous events, are preceded by 'fluctuations' in the complexity measure

Complexity (of the ‘system’ – business model, or corporation, etc.)
x
Uncertainty (of the environment, market, economy)
= Fragility (of the situation)
Evidently, U cannot be managed but C can.
Measuring, monitoring and managing ‘current complexity’ is more effective than conventional means of assessing, rating, managing and modelling risk. And why it is better that a system be less complex [Occam’s Razor].
The best way to impact C is by starting from the top of the Complexity profile. Because the profile is computed based on a model-free method, there are no subjective ‘weights’ to adjust. Basically, this guarantees that you hit the most important parameters first, i.e the hubs.
A system CANNOT perform functions for which it was intended without, first, possessing and maintaining the minimum amount of complexity to do so. Therefore, by monitoring current complexity, the potential risks associated with loss of function(s) due to endogenous events, are preceded by ‘fluctuations’ in the complexity measure

The core message is that both THREAT & OPPORTUNITY lie within such (inter) connectedness but the winners of the current, turbulent and competitive marketplaces are those who understand the real power of creating RESILIENCE by developing TRUST & INTERDEPENDENCE (the collaboration that the author highlights).

But you cannot buy trust. It has to be earned and, in times of such ambiguity and uncertainty, competition without differentiation (beyond pricing) is not sufficient.

As Clay Shirky famously(?) said “It is easier to understand that you face competition than obsolescence”

The ‘Risk Leaders’ of the future need to recognise that to accelerate the process of understanding they require to trade TRANSPARENCY – demonstrable, shared, principles – for INFORMATION. Otherwise the (oft overlooked) frictional costs associated with transforming data into information remain. Along with the unidentified sources of excessive complexity and ‘manageable’ risk that, unmanaged, add to volatility, increased uncertainty and – when spread through interactions – can lead to contagion (or ‘systemic risk’)!

We are living in a knowledge driven economy that is 

data-to-wisdom1heavily influenced by collaborative forces sharing intangible and tangible assets to create new value.  The internet has accelerated collaboration and people are learning from the interactions.

Why Management Consulting Will Be Disrupted: Part 1.

Quantitative Complexity Management: A simple 5 step process


There are plenty of self-anointed subject matter experts happy to pontificate upon complexity. Sources, causes and their own approach to solutions but what they all (except Ontonix) lack is the means to establish a sound (verifiable) quantitative basis from which to commence the process of ‘complexity management’, monitoring and maintenance.

Check it out, for FREE, on-line!:

cid_part6_04050208_01010701ontonix.gifThe following five-step process forms the backbone of all our service engagements. It reflects our extensive experience in Quantitative Complexity Management in a multitude of applications spanning a wide variety of industrial sectors. It also illustrates the typical structure and workflow in a business simplification and ‘robustification’ project.

via Ontonix – Complex Systems Management, Business Risk Management.

Innovation:: managing complexity & reducing risk [Design News]


I was first aware of the author courtesy of this quote…that alarmingly few business ‘leaders’ appear to, either, believe or understand…

“In a complex system, learning how all the pieces—constant and variable—interact gives a depth of understanding that averts catastrophe. That is what we mean by human-centred design—understanding the interfaces among technology, people, communities, governments, and nature. This is what makes complexity manageable”.

If you are in the business of making money based upon the ability of another party to avoid financial loss, then your own ability to identify the properties that distinguish ‘good risk from bad’ is, SURELY, fundamental!? So the message that there is a means to gain “…understanding that averts catastrophe“, through “understanding the interfaces among technology, people, communities, governments, and nature” must surely be greeted with wide-eyed enthusiasm. Read more of this post

Complexity, risk, uncertainty and change


image

Business management, particularly for those intent upon ‘change’ or responsible for managing exposures, needs a rigorous, objective, measurement of the endogenous properties (complexity) that enables the functionality from which (through interactions with exogenous parties) the business generates the revenues that sustain it in changing and turbulent economic times.

“Complexity increases cost and decreases flexibility — often in unforeseen ways — and also tends to decrease stability,”….

Peter Leukert, CIO of Commerzbank

It is the number, nature and integrity of dynamic, multi-scalar, interactions that are the sources of strength (enabling performance greater than the sum of the parts). The ability to distinguish and respond to ‘signals’, that maintain the variety, effectiveness and agility of the complex system, from the ‘noise’ of flawed metrics, self-serving culture, hierarchical structure (silos), skewed incentives – of an unsustainable, failed or failing, model (reliant upon  assumption, reflexive, subjective, statistical analysis and prediction) that has its foundation in flawed (linear) economic thinking.

We won’t get different or better answers while we keep on asking the same questions.

For meaningful change to occur and to be sustained requires a rigorous justification, sufficient to counter financial projections that satisfy the goals of C-level short-termism that are detrimental to the stability and long term health of the business.

Read more of this post