Updated – Complex Systems and Ecology: Report by US National Academies…

If you don’t already know WHY I am so intent upon “banging on” about complex systems then you must have stumbled upon this item quite by chance! If so…welcome! I sincerely hope that you will take on board a lesson that WE NEED TO LEARN.

But this blog is not merely about recycling someone else’s words just to look smart or well-informed. There is a “greater purpose” and that is to alert people, not just to the problem but to the solution that we, at Ontonix have developed. S-l-o-w-l-y an understanding of the need for an entirely new view is gathering momentum and Ontonix have the tools to: map interdependencies; measure [their] effectiveness; manage robustness; monitor complexity within systems. Conventional risk management tools, risk and rating methodologies are no longer adequate.

Quantitative Complexity Management is advanced risk management

Well before this recent crisis emerged, the US National Academies/National Research Council and the Federal Reserve Bank of New York collaborated on an initiative to “stimulate fresh thinking on systemic risk”. The main event was a high-level conference held in May 2006, which brought together experts from various backgrounds to explore parallels between systemic risk in the financial sector and in selected domains in engineering, ecology and other fields of science. The resulting report was published late 2007 and makes stimulating reading.

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The case for “Complexity Analysis”: Blind faith, Greek philosophy and risk

Unless you have been living in a cave you WILL be aware that the global financial sector has FAILED. It is “shot”! The models upon which the largest institutions and corporations quantified risk are discredited as are the rating agencies who wield such power over entire nations.

No-one could have seen it coming. Right?

WRONG. ABOUT AS WRONG AS YOU COULD BE!!! The warnings were out there. Not from fortune-tellers, soothsayers, prophets of doom and mad men. They, like those that relied upon their own intuition, would probably been marginalised or dismissed. But when warnings came from economists and academics you would have thought that the stakes were sufficiently high, to, at least, listen to what they had to say. NOPE. The most popular course was to ridicule what has since been shown to be the “inconvenient truth”. Read more of this post