Ontonix:: when Will the USA Collapse?


The European Union is in a state of evident and (possibly) irreversible demise. The first and most prominent reflection of this is the weakness of the Euro which we have recently forecasted to "dissolve" around Q3 of 2013. Once the common currency is gone, the union will probably transform into something else that is easier to manage, less complex, less heterogeneous. The structural resilience of the EU as a system has been very low (1 on a scale from 1 to 5) since November 2010 and this is certainly not a good omen.

Recently we have turned our attention to the US. Employing data from the World Bank we have rated the country as a system, incorporating into the analysis over 800 parameters spanning:

  • Economy
  • Industry
  • Agriculture
  • Energy
  • Society
  • Ecosystem
  • Transportation
  • Telecommunications
  • Military/Defence
  • Education
  • Health System
  • etc. Read more of this post

Inviting meltdown: Preserving the Status Quo with Artifice and Lies Leads to Systemic Collapse


These few words refer to the “economic domain” and, in particular, the sad state of the Euro. However, what I wanted to highlight (perhaps reiterate would be a better word) is the universality of complex systems. Hence the ability for us to learn lessons in economics from biology, politics from forestry management, etc.

But these are lessons that each and every business owner or wannabe business “leader” would do well to understand and apply NOW and NEVER FORGET! This isn’t new news or new wisdom and if you don’t believe me, contemplate this, from a few centuries ago:

“…in its beginning it is easy to cure, but hard to recognise; whereas, after a time, not having been detected and treated at the first, it becomes easy to recognise but impossible to cure”

– Niccolo Machiavelli

Read more of this post

When Will the Euro Collapse? Around Q3 2013


This blog, from our Corporate website, reinforces what we are gradually accepting (I think!?) but puts a timeline on it. However, the most important aspect is the ability that Ontonix deliver, to measure complexity and robustness to such an extent. This is not some overpriced, part quantitative part qualitative, “opinion” but a 100%, objective, quantitative analysis of Publicly available macro-economic data. the full article is here.

Exactly one year ago we published a blog warning that the Structural Resilience of the EU economy had decreased from “Low” to “Very Low”, reaching dangerous levels, at which contagion becomes very likely. In that blog the situation was depicted as in the figure below: Read more of this post

“Government Deficits Could Be the Next ‘Black Swan’” – Taleb, 2010


When is a Black swan not a Black swan???

Image via Wikipedia

Please don’t think ill of me for re-reading one of my own blogs from 2010 because I think this quote justifies it in its own:

The problem is getting runaway. It’s becoming a pure Ponzi scheme. It’s very nonlinear: You need more and more debt just to stay where you are. And what broke [convicted financier Bernard] Madoff is going to break governments. They need to find new suckers all the time. And unfortunately the world has run out of suckers.

NNT tends to be worth listening to even if this conclusion wont surprise too many! Read more of this post

Euro 2011: the “game” was done in 1st Quarter but deep in the 4th the lights are going out!


Risk rating on internet

The following graphic represents our [Ontonix] rating of the entire European Union (comprising 27 countries, each described via 24 macro-economic parameters) and which we analyse every quarter (results from Q1 2011 analysis). For a more in depth analysis of feedback loops within networks the full article can be found here:

Reality is Made of Loops But All We See Is Straight Lines

A 1 star rating, in a 5 star stratification, tells anyone, pretty well, all they would need to know about the subject being rated!

Unlike the Rating Agencies our rating does not come in the form of an, over-priced, “opinion” that, on the bases of numerous failures in the recent past, are worth very little: if you received such inaccurate opinions from a Doctor or Surgeon they would have been the subject of numerous Medical Malpractice lawsuits and be struck off long before now. Their incompetence would tend to affect only one person at a time NOT tens of millions over generations!!! Read more of this post