Synchronization versus collaboration:: uncertainty v risk

The Lorenz attractor displays chaotic behavior...

The Lorenz attractor displays chaotic behaviour. These two plots demonstrate sensitive dependence on initial conditions within the region of phase space occupied by the attractor. (Photo credit: Wikipedia)

We don’t need an understanding of  ‘Chaos Theory’ to know about the “Butterfly Effect”, nor do we need a medical qualification to grasp that (hitherto) unseen flaws in human DNA can have life-changing consequences for individuals.

In business terms, those of us who are concerned enough with ‘risk’ to look beyond what conventional “wisdom” tells us, KNOW that in the Digital Age of networks of inter-connected systems and sub-systems, apparently minor errors can have a MAJOR effect:

HILP – high impact, low probability events

Power Laws [fat tail] NOT Gaussian [thin tail]

Beyond probability…to the possible and plausible.

Yet, still, risk carriers, such as banks and insurers, think and rate in terms of “old world”.

It is gone. Past. An era that will not return and the problems that are being stored-up, because they fail to embrace the facts, CANNOT be funded by informed customers!

Production did not drive our lives in the old world, but the complexity of the new societies is turning our lives into gears of a big machine. Thinking that human life has the only aim of being productive for the society is the first error of any organizational system. Engineers design the pieces of a machine in order to be manufactured with a certain level of precision that provides a good performance; however, human organizations cannot design the behaviour of the people with the required precision…

via Synchronization versus collaboration.

The FACTS that lie beyond conventional risk horizon (in graphics)

Uncertainty into usable prob

You must not become complacent with a pattern that works today because new patterns will be needed in the very near future Read more of this post

Differentiating risk and uncertainty [infographic]: : YOUR feedback required

risk horizonI have sat on this for…months because I:

  • cannot make my mind up how happy I am with it,so
  • I have accepted it is best to view it as a collaborative work in progress
  • wasn’t entirely sure what I was going to do with it or how best to share it
  • am frustrated that people in the “risk business” are unwilling to engage in informed discussion about:
    • business – networks – markets as Complex Systems
    • identified RM failings in
      • conventional Risk/Project Management – Corporate/banking/insurance
      • subjective Risk assessment
      • Risk rating
  • am fed up with people, who should know better:
    • being unable to differentiate between risk and uncertainty, or
    • confusing the two
    • failing to recognise the serious implications of treating uncertainty with risk management tools/techniques and
    • making, dangerously naive, assumptions e.g. Read more of this post