Tempus fugit:: Extreme Risks update [report from Towers Watson]

Towers Watson are doing some sterling work at the minute whilst others appear content to believe that the future will closely resemble the past…strange, when you consider how much the world has changed in the last 20 years, let alone the last century! As the Founder and CTO of Ontonix, Dr Jacek Marczyk, put it:

“Running a company based on just the financials is like driving a car by only looking at the rear view mirror!”

This statement can be readily adapted to apply to classical economics, credit and risk rating (& modelling) that have been shown to be “deeply flawed”. Compounded by an unchanged culture and utilisation of risk management tools and techniques (from the Industrial era) that have failed, so spectacularly, in the Digital Age.

We “know”: about the differences between risk and uncertainty: that interconnected entities present a very different probability distribution; about “Black Swans” and low probability/high impact events; the threat of “systemic risk” is significant and straddles domains as readily as it transcends “scales” (micro to macro), business sectors and national borders; that, in the face of uncertainty, we NEED to (re)build RESILIENCE…

Regrettably, the common approach (particularly in Financial Services) seems to be to overlook the inconvenient truth

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