Gawande:: to err is human [or don’t mess with complexity!]


@atul_gawande by pixbymaia

@atul_gawande by pixbymaia (Photo credit: pixbymaia)

OK, so this isn’t quite what Atul Gawande says in his excellent book, ‘The Checklist Manifesto’ (link to title on Amazon) but, when highly skilled people whom we trust to see us across thousands of miles of open sea in an aircraft or through a critical 6 hour surgery, it may as well be! It is a strikingly similar message to that promoted by Nassim [Black Swan] Taleb and, implicitly, by Ontonix.

I don’t know about you but, if I am going on a transatlantic flight, under the knife or entrusting a lifetime’s worth of savings to an expert, I really don’t care that they may use a checklist to improve their chances of success! Rather that than rely upon a fluffy mascot, lucky bandana or some other such nonsense! Read more of this post

Risk:: some things just CANNOT be modelled


Believe it or not this is only an extract from a longer article by the Founder of Ontonix. I am, very much a layman when it comes to computer models but that is most certainly not the case with Jacek (Marczyk). However, even I know enough to question, what I have come to refer to as, the “prediction addiction”  that afflicts the insurance and wider financial sector.

There is a fundamental principle – the Principle of Incompatibility – which states that as complexity increases, precision and relevance become mutually exclusive. In other words, as things get complex (and they seem to be) your statements about it become less and less precise. This means that as something becomes highly complex you can forget building models. You need to change strategy. A new approach is needed. You must change direction. Large consulting firms claim otherwise. Read more of this post

Amazon Kindle ebooks: required complexity reading


Dr Jacek Marczyk, CTO and Founder of Ontonix has written several books during his illustrious career – I don’t know how he finds the time! – more recently these have, unsurprisingly, been on the subject of complexity. His work and that of the original Ontonix team has broken new ground and enabled Ontonix to provide solutions to some of the best known brands on the planet.

For those who thirst for further knowledge on, what is a fascinating, infinitely relevant and topical subject, here are the the relevant links:

Practical Complexity Management A New Theory of Risk and Rating

Ontonix have succeeded in creating a rigorous, 100% quantitative, “hard science” means of measuring complexity [structured information] and entropy [chaos or uncertainty] within systems. This has been applied in a wide variety of fields, from Healthcare to critical business processes incl. IT system monitoring – product design and testing – Petro-chemical – Aviation – Aerospace – Air Traffic control – Financial stability rating – ecosystem & interdependence mapping…we are always looking for other areas for future development so feel free to share any ideas applicable to your sector or industry: david@ontonix.com

As a result we are able to provide Complexity Facts that others have, so far, only been able to surmise. Every dynamic [non-linear] system has a current and critical level of complexity and measurement is the first step on managing .

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